Epidemiological study (observational study)

Has the incidence of brain cancer risen in Australia since the introduction of mobile phones 29 years ago? epidem.

By: Chapman S, Azizi L, Luo Q, Sitas F

Published in: Cancer Epidemiol 2016; 42: 199-205

Aim of study (acc. to author)

The association between mobile use coverage and brain cancer incidence was investigated in a trend study in Australia.

Further details

The observed incidence rates were compared to expected calculated incidence rates to illustrate the purported effect of mobile phones on brain cancer incidence. Estimated expected age specific incidence rates (4 groups: 20-39, 40-59, 60-69, 70-84 years) were calculated assuming a 10-year latency period and a relative risk of 1.5 in ever-users of mobile phones (published in Hardell et al., 2011) and a relative risk of 2.5 in a proportion of heavy users with more than 896 h cumulative use (19% of all users), published Morgan et al. (2015).

Endpoint/type of risk estimation

brain tumor

Type of risk estimation:

incidence

(standardized incidence rate (SIR))

Exposure

- mobile communications
- mobile phone

Assessment

list: percentage of all Australians with mobile phone accounts from the Australian Mobile Telephone Association and the Australian Communications and Media Authority annual reports
calculation: modelling of expected age specific rates

Population

Group:
- men
- women
Age: 20–84 years
Observation period: 1982 - 2012
Study location: Australia
Data source: national cancer registry

Conclusion (acc. to author)

Overall, 19,858 male and 14,222 females were diagnosed with brain cancer in Australia between 1982 and 2012.
Age-adjusted brain cancer incidence rates have risen slightly in males but were stable over 30 years in females and are higher in males (SIR 8.7 per 100,000; CI 8.1-9.3) than in females (SIR 5.8 per 100,000: CI 5.3-6.3).
Assuming a causal RR of 1.5 and 10-year lag period, the expected incidence rate in males in 2012 would be 11.7 per 100,000 and in females 7.7 per 100,000; 1434 cases observed vs. 1867 expected cases in 2012. Assuming a causal RR of 2.5 among heavy users gave 2038 expected cases.
Significant increases in brain cancer incidence were observed (in keeping with modelled rates) only in those aged ≥ 70 years (both sexes), but the increase in incidence in this age group began from 1982, before the introduction of mobile phones. Modelled expected incidence rates were higher in all age groups in comparison to what was observed.
The authors conclude that the observed stability of brain cancer incidence in Australia between 1982 and 2012 in all age groups, except in those over 70 years compared to increasing modelled expected estimates, suggests that the observed increases in brain cancer incidence in the older age group are unlikely to be related to mobile phone use. They hypothesize that the observed increases in brain cancer incidence in Australia are related to the advent of improved diagnostic procedures (e.g. computed tomography) in the early 1980s.

Limitations (acc. to author)

This is an ecological trends analysis, with no data on individual mobile phone use and outcome.

Study funded by

not stated/no funding

Comments on this article

Morgan LL et al. (2016): Has the incidence of brain cancer risen in Australia since the introduction of mobile phones 29 years ago?
Bandara P (2016): Mobile phone use and the brain cancer incidence rate in Australia.
Wojcik DP (2016): Primary brain tumors and mobile cell phone usage.
Chapman S et al. (2016): Response from the authors to correspondence related to 'Has the incidence of brain cancer risen in Australia since the introduction of mobile phones 29 years ago?'

de Vocht F (2016): Inferring the 1985-2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes using Bayesian structural time series and synthetic controls.
Grell K et al. (2016): The Intracranial Distribution of Gliomas in Relation to Exposure From Mobile Phones: Analyses From the INTERPHONE Study.
Sato Y et al. (2016): Time trend in incidence of malignant neoplasms of the central nervous system in relation to mobile phone use among young people in Japan.
Yoon S et al. (2015): Mobile phone use and risk of glioma: a case-control study in Korea for 2002-2007.
Morgan LL et al. (2015): Mobile phone radiation causes brain tumors and should be classified as a probable human carcinogen (2A) (Review).
Kim SJH et al. (2015): Trends in incidence of primary brain cancer in New Zealand, 1995 to 2010.
Coureau G et al. (2014): Mobile phone use and brain tumours in the CERENAT case-control study.
Hsu MH et al. (2013): The incidence rate and mortality of malignant brain tumors after 10 years of intensive cell phone use in Taiwan.
Deltour I et al. (2012): Mobile Phone Use and Incidence of Glioma in the Nordic Countries 1979-2008: Consistency Check.
Barchana M et al. (2012): Changes in brain glioma incidence and laterality correlates with use of mobile phones - a nationwide population based study in Israel.
Little MP et al. (2012): Mobile phone use and glioma risk: comparison of epidemiological study results with incidence trends in the United States.
Ding LX et al. (2011): Increasing incidence of brain and nervous tumours in urban Shanghai, China, 1983-2007.
Frei P et al. (2011): Use of mobile phones and risk of brain tumours: update of Danish cohort study.
Aydin D et al. (2011): Mobile phone use and brain tumors in children and adolescents: a multicenter case-control study.
Cardis E et al. (2011): Risk of brain tumours in relation to estimated RF dose from mobile phones: results from five Interphone countries.
Hardell L et al. (2011): Pooled analysis of case-control studies on malignant brain tumours and the use of mobile and cordless phones including living and deceased subjects.
de Vocht F et al. (2011): Time trends (1998-2007) in brain cancer incidence rates in relation to mobile phone use in England.
Lehrer S et al. (2011): Association between number of cell phone contracts and brain tumor incidence in nineteen U.S. States.
Inskip PD et al. (2010): Brain cancer incidence trends in relation to cellular telephone use in the United States.
INTERPHONE Study Group et al. (2010): Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use: results of the INTERPHONE international case-control study.
Deltour I et al. (2009): Time trends in brain tumor incidence rates in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, 1974-2003.
Ahlbom A et al. (2009): Epidemiologic evidence on mobile phones and tumor risk: a review.
Schüz J et al. (2006): Cellular telephone use and cancer risk: update of a nationwide Danish cohort.
Lönn S et al. (2004): Incidence trends of adult primary intracerebral tumors in four Nordic countries.
Cook A et al. (2003): Cellular telephone use and time trends for brain, head and neck tumours.
Johansen C et al. (2001): Cellular telephones and cancer--a nationwide cohort study in Denmark.