研究のタイプ: 疫学研究 (observational study)

[29年前の携帯電話導入以降にオーストラリアで脳腫瘍発生率は上昇したか？] epidem.

Has the incidence of brain cancer risen in Australia since the introduction of mobile phones 29 years ago?

著者: Chapman S, Azizi L, Luo Q, Sitas F
掲載誌: Cancer Epidemiol 2016; 42: 199-205
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この研究は、オーストラリアの全国がん登録で1982-2012年間に診断された脳腫瘍（男性19,858、女性14,222）の年齢階級別（20-39、40-59、60-69、70-84歳）および性別の発生率、および1987-2012年間の携帯電話使用データを調べた。オーストラリアでは1987年に携帯電話が導入され、2014年現在の全人口での使用率は94%である。携帯電話使用と脳腫瘍発生の関連が成り立つと仮定とした場合の年齢階級別および性別の期待発生率を、潜伏期間10年、携帯電話ユーザの相対リスク（RR）を1.5、ヘビーユーザ（全ユーザの19%）のRRを2.5としてモデル計算も行った。その結果、年齢調整発生率（20-84歳、対10万人）の30年間の推移は、男性では若干の増加傾向、女性では安定であった；年齢階級別では、男女とも70歳以上群以外での増加は見られず、70歳以上群での急激な増加が観察された。この傾向は1982年にも観察されていた；標準化発生率は男性8.7（信頼区間CI= 8.1-9.3）、女性5.8（CI=5.3-6.3）であったのに対し、因果関係を仮定した場合の期待標準化発生率は男性11.7（信頼区間CI= 11-12.4）、女性7.7（CI=7.2-8.3）であり、発症数で見ると2012年の観察数1434 症例に対し期待発症数は1867症例であった；携帯電話使用の急峻な増加に合致した脳腫瘍の発生増加は見られなかった、と報告している。

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研究の目的(著者による)

The association between mobile use coverage and brain cancer incidence was investigated in a trend study in Australia.

詳細情報

The observed incidence rates were compared to expected calculated incidence rates to illustrate the purported effect of mobile phones on brain cancer incidence. Estimated expected age specific incidence rates (4 groups: 20-39, 40-59, 60-69, 70-84 years) were calculated assuming a 10-year latency period and a relative risk of 1.5 in ever-users of mobile phones (published in Hardell et al., 2011) and a relative risk of 2.5 in a proportion of heavy users with more than 896 h cumulative use (19% of all users), published Morgan et al. (2015).

影響評価項目／リスク推定のタイプ

リスク推定のタイプ: (標準化発生率比(SIR))

ばく露

ばく露評価

調査対象集団

結論(著者による)

Overall, 19,858 male and 14,222 females were diagnosed with brain cancer in Australia between 1982 and 2012.
Age-adjusted brain cancer incidence rates have risen slightly in males but were stable over 30 years in females and are higher in males (SIR 8.7 per 100,000; CI 8.1-9.3) than in females (SIR 5.8 per 100,000: CI 5.3-6.3).
Assuming a causal RR of 1.5 and 10-year lag period, the expected incidence rate in males in 2012 would be 11.7 per 100,000 and in females 7.7 per 100,000; 1434 cases observed vs. 1867 expected cases in 2012. Assuming a causal RR of 2.5 among heavy users gave 2038 expected cases.
Significant increases in brain cancer incidence were observed (in keeping with modelled rates) only in those aged ≥ 70 years (both sexes), but the increase in incidence in this age group began from 1982, before the introduction of mobile phones. Modelled expected incidence rates were higher in all age groups in comparison to what was observed.
The authors conclude that the observed stability of brain cancer incidence in Australia between 1982 and 2012 in all age groups, except in those over 70 years compared to increasing modelled expected estimates, suggests that the observed increases in brain cancer incidence in the older age group are unlikely to be related to mobile phone use. They hypothesize that the observed increases in brain cancer incidence in Australia are related to the advent of improved diagnostic procedures (e.g. computed tomography) in the early 1980s.

研究の限界(著者による)

This is an ecological trends analysis, with no data on individual mobile phone use and outcome.

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